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Nov. 26, 2008

Only ten days since web hosting provider McColo (the alleged host to some of the biggest criminals and e-mail spammers on the Internet) went offline, analytics firms across the globe have found that the international volume of e-mail spam has dropped by as much as 75 percent and is still staying low as of now.

After closely investigating McColo since early July, the Washington Post's Security Fix blog found that the San Jose host was likely hosting "some of the most disreputable cyber-criminal gangs in business today," including child pornography, anti-virus scams and malicious software, which has stolen banking and credit card information from more than half a million people.

Security Fix blogger Brian Krebs informed two of its upstream Internet providers, which subsequently ceased their service to McColo.

Since effectively blowing the whistle on McColo, Krebs has found spam levels have been remaining low. Citing email security firm IronPort's reports that it blocked around 35 billion junk emails Monday, down from weeks ago when it would have typically flagged roughly 160 billion messages daily.

He also noted that Spamcop.net's reports show spam volumes "well below half" the levels reported before McColo was shut down for good. Backing up the notion that spam levels will be lower in the short-term, managed security services provider MX Logic's November Threat Forecast and Report, this year's holiday season may have significantly lower spam levels.

But overall spam levels may not follow their traditional patterns set this year, according to the report, which noted recent news about spam network shutdowns will have an effect on the volume of spam messages, even though "spam remains too lucrative to assume that this trend will continue through the holidays," the report suggests.

While e-mail spam may be in a decline, MX Logic expects an unprecedented increase in unwanted "opt-in" emails from retailers and other e-commerce sites this holiday season. "Think twice before handing out your e-mail address this holiday season," the report warns.

Considered legitimate messages requested by the recipient, Opt-in e-mails flow freely to the inbox, bypassing spam filters. There are often very few, if any, restrictions or limitations on the frequency of e-mails that vendors can send to those who opt-in to receive messages.

The report also notes that a typical spam cycle includes levels beginning to rise in April or May, then surging to their highest levels in November and December as the holiday season approaches.

For example, in 2007, MX Logic accurately predicted a 50 percent November and December spam increase, and that's exactly what happened.

Retail Email Blog has issued its Retail Email Index, which also reports a rise in email marketing activity among US retailers. With still five weeks until Christmas, the Retail Email Blog has found an eleven percent increase in marketing emails in the week ending November 21 compared with the previous week, while increasing by 19 percent from its level four weeks ago.

While the recent decline in email spam has fueled hope that they will stay at these levels, Krebs did note that this is not a permanent situation, and that it would be wrong to assume otherwise.

Krebs said "I happen to agree with most experts who have said they expect spam volumes to bounce back or even exceed previous levels before McColo was put offline. Still, it's nice to see this substantial drop in junk email persist for so long."

"The Asprox and Rustock spam botnets are back with a vengeance after having found new command and control," Sergeant said in a statement.

"Cutwail never went away and it seems its owners have used the opportunity to increase output. Mega-D is also on the rise again. Srizbi, having once been responsible for 50 percent of all spam, is now completely defunct. Without this botnet, spam levels won't return to what they had been."

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Source: Message Labs.